Subseasonal to Seasonal Climate Forecasts Provide the Backbone of a Near-Real-Time Event Explainer Service

Subseasonal to Seasonal Prediction

The subseasonal to seasonal timescale provides a unique opportunity to capitalise on the expertise of the weather and climate research communities, and to bring them together to improve predictions on a timescale of particular relevance to the Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS). A planning group which included representatives from WWRP/THORPEX, WCRP, CBS and CCl drafted the implementa...

Subseasonal to Seasonal Prediction

The subseasonal to seasonal timescale provides a unique opportunity to capitalise on the expertise of the weather and climate research communities, and to bring them together to improve predictions on a timescale of particular relevance to the Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS). A planning group which included representatives from WWRP/THORPEX, WCRP, CBS and CCl drafted the implementa...

On the reliability of seasonal climate forecasts

Seasonal climate forecasts are being used increasingly across a range of application sectors. A recent UK governmental report asked: how good are seasonal forecasts on a scale of 1-5 (where 5 is very good), and how good can we expect them to be in 30 years time? Seasonal forecasts are made from ensembles of integrations of numerical models of climate. We argue that 'goodness' should be assessed...

Using subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) extreme rainfall forecasts for extended-range flood prediction in Australia

Meteorological and hydrological centres around the world are looking at ways to improve their capacity to be able to produce and deliver skilful and reliable forecasts of high-impact extreme rainfall and flooding events on a range of prediction timescales (e.g. sub-daily, daily, multi-week, seasonal). Making improvements to extended-range rainfall and flood forecast models, assessing forecast s...

Sensitivity of Seasonal Climate Forecasts to Persisted SST Anomalies